国际经济学 : 理论与政策 : 全球版 : 第9版

Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 323

13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 323

14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market:

350

384

414

451

An Asset Approach

15 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates

16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run

17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run

18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention 493

Part 4 International Macroeconomic Policy 534

534

587

616

19 International Monetary Systems: An Historical Overview

20 Optimum Currency Areas and the European Experience

21 Financial Globalization: Opportunity and Crisis

22 Developing Countries: Growth, Crisis, and Reform 649

Mathematical Postscripts

Postscript to Chapter 21: Risk Aversion and International Portfolio Diversification 691

Credits 698

Index 699

viii

ix

Contents

Preface xvi

Part 3 Exchange Rates and Open-Economy Macroeconomics 323

13 National Income Accounting and the Balance of Payments 323

The National Income Accounts325

National Product and National Income326

Capital Depreciation and International Transfers327

Gross Domestic Product327

National Income Accounting for an Open Economy328

Consumption328

Investment328

Government Purchases329

The National Income Identity for an Open Economy329

An Imaginary Open Economy329

The Current Account and Foreign Indebtedness330

Saving and the Current Account332

Private and Government Saving333

CASE STUDY: Government Deficit Reduction May Not Increase

the Current Account Surplus334

The Balance of Payments Accounts336

Examples of Paired Transactions337

The Fundamental Balance of Payments Identity338

The Current Account, Once Again339

The Capital Account340

The Financial Account340

Net Errors and Omissions341

Official Reserve Transactions342

CASE STUDY: The Assets and Liabilities of the World’s Biggest Debtor343

Summary346

14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach 350

Exchange Rates and International Transactions351

Domestic and Foreign Prices351

Exchange Rates and Relative Prices353

The Foreign Exchange Market354

The Actors354

Characteristics of the Market355

Spot Rates and Forward Rates356

Foreign Exchange Swaps358

Futures and Options358

The Demand for Foreign Currency Assets358

Assets and Asset Returns359

BOX: Nondeliverable Forward Exchange Trading in Asia360

Risk and Liquidity362

Interest Rates362

Exchange Rates and Asset Returns364

A Simple Rule364

Return, Risk, and Liquidity in the Foreign Exchange Market366

Equilibrium in the Foreign Exchange Market367

Interest Parity: The Basic Equilibrium Condition367

How Changes in the Current Exchange Rate Affect Expected Returns368

The Equilibrium Exchange Rate369

Interest Rates, Expectations, and Equilibrium371

The Effect of Changing Interest Rates on the Current Exchange Rate372

The Effect of Changing Expectations on the Current Exchange Rate373

x Contents

CASE STUDY: What Explains the Carry Trade374

Summary376

Appendix: Forward Exchange Rates and Covered

Interest Parity381

384

Money Defined: A Brief Review385

Money as a Medium of Exchange385

Money as a Unit of Account385

Money as a Store of Value386

What Is Money386

How the Money Supply Is Determined386

The Demand for Money by Individuals387

Expected Return387

Risk388

Liquidity388

Aggregate Money Demand388

The Equilibrium Interest Rate: The Interaction of Money

Supply and Demand390

Equilibrium in the Money Market390

Interest Rates and the Money Supply392

Output and the Interest Rate393

The Money Supply and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run393

Linking Money, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate394

U.S. Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate395

Europe’s Money Supply and the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate396

Money, the Price Level, and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run398

Money and Money Prices399

The Long-Run Effects of Money Supply Changes399

Empirical Evidence on Money Supplies and Price Levels400

Money and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run401

Inflation and Exchange Rate Dynamics402

Short-Run Price Rigidity versus Long-Run Price Flexibility402

BOX: Money Supply Growth and Hyperinflation in Bolivia404

Permanent Money Supply Changes and the Exchange Rate404

Exchange Rate Overshooting407

CASE STUDY: Can Higher Inflation Lead to Currency Appreciation

The Implications of Inflation Targeting408

Summary411

414

The Law of One Price415

Purchasing Power Parity416

The Relationship Between PPP and the Law of One Price416

Absolute PPP and Relative PPP417

A Long-Run Exchange Rate Model Based on PPP418

The Fundamental Equation of the Monetary Approach418

15 Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates

16 Price Levels and the Exchange Rate in the Long Run

Ongoing Inflation, Interest Parity, and PPP420

The Fisher Effect421

Empirical Evidence on PPP and the Law of One Price424

Explaining the Problems with PPP425

Trade Barriers and Nontradables426

Departures from Free Competition427

Differences in Consumption Patterns and Price Level Measurement427

Contents xi

BOX: Some Meaty Evidence on the Law of One Price428

PPP in the Short Run and in the Long Run430

CASE STUDY: Why Price Levels Are Lower in Poorer Countries431

Beyond Purchasing Power Parity: A General Model of Long-Run

Exchange Rates433

The Real Exchange Rate434

Demand, Supply, and the Long-Run Real Exchange Rate435

BOX: Sticky Prices and the Law of One Price: Evidence

from Scandinavian Duty-Free Shops436

Nominal and Real Exchange Rates in Long-Run Equilibrium438

International Interest Rate Differences and the Real Exchange Rate440

Real Interest Parity442

Summary443

Appendix: The Fisher Effect, the Interest Rate, and the Exchange Rate

Under the Flexible-Price Monetary Approach448

17 Output and the Exchange Rate in the Short Run 451

Determinants of Aggregate Demand in an Open Economy452

Determinants of Consumption Demand452

Determinants of the Current Account453

How Real Exchange Rate Changes Affect the Current Account454

How Disposable Income Changes Affect the Current Account454

The Equation of Aggregate Demand455

The Real Exchange Rate and Aggregate Demand455

Real Income and Aggregate Demand455

How Output Is Determined in the Short Run456

Output Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The DD Schedule458

Output, the Exchange Rate, and Output Market Equilibrium458

Deriving the DD Schedule459

Factors That Shift the DD Schedule459

Asset Market Equilibrium in the Short Run: The AA Schedule462

Output, the Exchange Rate, and Asset Market Equilibrium462

Deriving the AA Schedule464

Factors That Shift the AA Schedule464

Short-Run Equilibrium for an Open Economy: Putting the DD and AA

Schedules Together465

Temporary Changes in Monetary and Fiscal Policy467

Monetary Policy468

Fiscal Policy468

Policies to Maintain Full Employment469

Inflation Bias and Other Problems of Policy Formulation471

Permanent Shifts in Monetary and Fiscal Policy472

A Permanent Increase in the Money Supply472

Adjustment to a Permanent Increase in the Money Supply472

A Permanent Fiscal Expansion474

xii Contents

Macroeconomic Policies and the Current Account476

Gradual Trade Flow Adjustment and Current Account Dynamics477

The J-Curve477

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation479

BOX: Exchange Rates and the Current Account480

The Liquidity Trap481

Summary484

Appendix 1: Intertemporal Trade and Consumption Demand488

Appendix 2: The Marshall-Lerner Condition and Empirical

Estimates of Trade Elasticities490

18 Fixed Exchange Rates and Foreign Exchange Intervention 493

Why Study Fixed Exchange Rates494

Central Bank Intervention and the Money Supply495

The Central Bank Balance Sheet and the Money Supply495

Foreign Exchange Intervention and the Money Supply497

Sterilization497

The Balance of Payments and the Money Supply498

How the Central Bank Fixes the Exchange Rate499

Foreign Exchange Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate499

Money Market Equilibrium Under a Fixed Exchange Rate500

A Diagrammatic Analysis501

Stabilization Policies with a Fixed Exchange Rate502

Monetary Policy502

Fiscal Policy503

Changes in the Exchange Rate504

Adjustment to Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Changes506

Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flight506

Managed Floating and Sterilized Intervention509

Perfect Asset Substitutability and the Ineffectiveness of Sterilized Intervention509

BOX: Brazil’s 1998–1999 Balance of Payments Crisis510

本书配有大量的案例、专栏和图表，注重理论在实践中的应用。作者以其多年来对国际经济学的研究和实践经验，系统介绍了国际贸易理论和政策、国际收支平衡、汇率决定和国际宏观经济政策的新研究成果，是一本不可多得的国际经济学教材。本书分上下两册，上册是国际贸易部分（第2～12章），下册是国际金融部分（第13～22章），两部分自成体系，因此，授课老师可以根据课时需要自行安排授课。

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