管理决策：理论与实践

PAPTⅠ THE FUNDAMENTALS OF MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING

CHAFFER 1 INTRODUCTION TO MANAGEMENT SCIENCE

1.1 Introduction to Managerial Decision Making

1.2 Trends Affecting Decision Making Today

1.3 Key Characteristics of Management Science for Decision Making

1.4 The Use of Models for Making Decisions

1.5 The Use of Software in Decision Making

1.6 Applications of Management Science in Business

References

CHAFFER 2 AVOIDING BAD DECISIONS: The Methodology of

Decision Making

2.1 Introduction

2.2 Decision Making Traps

2.3 Decision Making Tips

2.4 The Rational Methodology for Decision Making

2.5 Identification of the Problem

2.6 Analysis of the System

2.7 Formulation of the Objectives

2.8 Initial System Design

2.9 Detailed System Design

2.10 Solution Implementation and Monitoring

References

PAPTⅡ MODELS IN MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING

CHAPTER 3 LINEAR PROGRAMMING

3.1 Introduction

3.2 Characteristics of LP Problems

3.3 A Maximization Problem

3.4 A Trial-and-Error Approach in Solving LP Problems

3.5 Graphical Solution of a LP Problem

3.6 A Minimization Problem

3.7 General Formulation and Assumptions of LP Models

3.8 Solving LP Problems

Problems

References

CHAPTER 4 USING SOLVER TO SOLVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING

PROBLEMS

4. 1 Introduction

4.2 Introducing the Model in Excel

4.3 Solving the Problem

4.4 Understanding and Analyzing the Solution-SOLVER Reports

4.5 Solving Integer Programming Problems with SOLVER

4.6 Solving Non-Linear Programming Problems with SOLVER

4.7 Conclusions

Problems

References

CHAPTER 5 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN LINEAR

PROGRAMMING

5.1 Introduction

5.2 An Example

5.3 Dual Prices in LP

5.4 Reduced Costs in LP

5.5 Changes in the Objective Functions Coefficients

5.6 Changes in the Right Hand Sides （RHS） of the Constraints

5.7 Evaluation of a New Activity

5.8 Conclusions

Problems

References

CHAPTER 6 INTEGER PROGRAMMING

6.1 Introduction

6.2 Formulating IP Problems with Binary Variables

6.3 An Investment Example

6.4 Formulating IP Problems with Fixed Costs and/or Discounts

6.5 Solving IP Problems

6.6 Heuristic Methods to Solve IP Problems

6.7 Conclusions

Problems

References

CHAPTER 7 MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING

7. I Introduction

7.2 Empirical Methods

7.3 Goal Programming

7.4 The Analytical Hierarchy Process

7.5 Using Expert Choice to Solve Multicriteria Problems

Problems

References

CHAPTER 8 STATISTICAL METHODS IN DECISION

MAKING

8.1 Introduction to Forecasting

8.2 Key Concepts about Forecasting

8.3 The Moving Averages Forecasting Method

8.4 Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method

8.5 Other Forecasting Methods

8.6 Linear Regression

8.7 Multiple Regression

8.8 Discriminant Analysis

8.9 Using SPSS for Statistical Analysis

Problems

References

CHAPTER 9 DECISION ANALYSIS

9.1 Introduction

9.2 Key Concepts about Decision Analysis

9.3 Criteria for Making Decisions under Uncertainty

9.4 The Expected Value of Perfect Information

9.5 Introduction to Decision Trees

9.6 Calculating the Risk Profile a Strategy

9.7 Sensitivity Analysis

9.8 Using Precision Tree to Solve Decision Analysis Problems

Problems

References

CHAPTER 10 SIMULATION

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Key Characteristics of Simulation

10.3 Implementation of Simulation under Conditions of Uncertainty

10.4 Simulation of Queuing Systems

10.5 Simulation of an Inventory System

10.6 Analysis of Simulation Results

10.7 Using Simulation for Risk Management

10.8 Using Simulation for Business Process Reengineering

Problems

References

PAPTⅢ IMPLEMENTING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE IN PRACTICE

CHAPTER 11 GETTING TO KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER

11.1 Introduction

11.2 Determining Customer Satisfaction

11.3 Designing New Products

11.4 Sales-Advertising Response Analysis

11.5 Forecasting Sales of New Products

11.6 Identifying Areas of Improvement

11.7 Studying Product Positioning

11.8 Identifying Market Segments

11.9 Identifying Prospect Customers

Problems

References

CHAPTER 12 MARKETING AND SALES MANAGEMENT

12.1 Introduction

12.2 A Product Selection Problem

12.3 Design of Sales Network

12.4 Selection of Communication Media

12.5 Selection of Location

12.6 Design of New Product Marketing Strategy

12.7 Design of Promotion Strategy

12.8 Sales Strategy

12.9 Evaluation of Customer Value for CRM Implementation

……

CHAPTER 13 PRODUCTION AND INVENTORY MANAGEMT

CHAPTER 14 NETWORKS AND TRANSPORT PROBLEMS

CHAPTER 15 LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

Management Science is of paramount importance in this effort. It provides decision makers with an extensive range of methodologies， skills， models and software tools that are necessary in order to effectively address a wide range of decision problems. More specifically， Management Science has been very helpful in management and decision making by contributing： a） A rational， systematic and robust methodology that can be followed when addressing a decision problem， b） A rich set of models， techniques and tools that can be used to structure， understand and solve the problem， and c ） A rich interface environment that helps the decision maker understand a solution， evaluate alternative solutions and come up with the preferred one. In all of these steps， the decision maker is supported by specialized easy-to-use software， which often come as additions （add-ins） to popular software like Excel， or are part of corporate Business Intelligence Systems or Decision Support Systems.