经济决策定量方法

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION TO QUANTITATIVE METHODS FOR DECISION MAKING

1.1 Quantitative Methods: A Continuing Story of Success

1.2 Management Science and Operations Research

1.3 The Importance of Studying Quantitative Methods

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CHAPTER 2 FORECASTING

2.1 Forecasting Using Past Data: Time-series Analysis

2.2 Exponential Smoothing

2.3 Forecasting Trend Using Regression

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CHAPTER 3 INVENTORY MODELS

3.1 Introduction

3.2 The Economic Order Quantity （EOQ） Model

3.3 Optimal Inventory Policy with Backordering

3.4 Economic Production Lot-size Model

3.5 Single-period Inventory Decisions with Uncertain Factors

3.6 Multi-period Inventory Policies with Uncertain Factors

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CHAPTER 4 LINEAR PROGRAMMING

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Formulation of Linear Programming Models

4.3 Graphical Solution of Linear Programs

4.4 Linear Program in Standard Form

4.5 Simplex Method

4.6 Use of Artificial Variables

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CHAPTER 5 TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS

5.1 A Shipment-Scheduling Case

5.2 Getting Started: The Northwest Comer Ruler

5.3 Getting Started: The Least Cost Ruler

5.4 Getting Started: The Vogel's Approximation Ruler

5.5 Solving the Problem: The Simplex Analogy

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CHAPTER 6 PROJECT PLANNING WITH PERT

6.1 The Basic Concepts of PERT

6.2 An Analysis of the PERT Network

6.3 Planning and Control Using the PERT Network

6.4 Time-Cost Trade-Off Evaluations with PERT

6.5 Probabilistic PERT Analysis with Three Time Estimates

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CHAPTER 7 DECISION MAKING

7.1 The Certainty and Uncertainty in Decision Making

7.2 The Elements of Decisions

7.3 The Bayes Decision Rule

7.4 The Decision Tree Analysis

7.5 Decision Making Using Experimental Information

7.6 Decision Making Using Normal Distribution

7.7 Decision Making with Utility

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CHAPTER8 GAMES INTERACTIVE DECISIONS

8.1 Game Theory

8.2 Major Game Types and Their Solutions

8.3 Some Properties of Zero-Sum Games

8.4 Mixed Strategies in Games with no Equilibrium Act Pair

8.5 Mixed Strategies in Larger Games

8.6 Additional Remarks

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CHAPTER 9 DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING

9.1 The Stagecoach Problem

9.2 Types of Dynamic Programs

9.3 The Knapsack Problem

9.4 Maximizing System Reliability

9.5 Optimizing Multi-period Inventories and Production

9.6 Probabilistic Dynamic Programming

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CHAPTER 10 RANDOM PROCESSES

10.1 Discrete Time Processes

10.2 Continuous Time Processes

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参考文献

本书在遵循国际上初步形成的“经济决策定量方法”课程架构的前提下，结合我国高校教学的实际，通过大量的实际案例，系统地介绍了“经济决策定量方法”的基本原理、方法与过程。全书共分10章，即：第一章经济决策定量方法综述；第二章经济预测分析；第三章存贮分析；第四章线性规划分析；第五章运输分析；第六章网络计划分析；第七章经济决策分析；第八章博弈与对策分析；第九章动态规划分析；第十章随机过程分析。
　　“经济决策定量方法”是一门新兴的经济管理核心课程，是横跨经济预测与决策、系统规划与优化、计量经济等领域的边缘性交又课程。本书篇幅在30万字左右，剪裁合理，详略得当，难易适中，较好地适应了我国高等院校教学的需要；采用大量实际案例，对知识的论述强调经济内涵，把数学的应用保持在中等水平上；全英文编写适应全球化人才培养的要求。
　　本书可作为普通高校经济管理类专业本科生和研究生双语教学或专业英语的教材，也可以作为企业全球化管理人才培训的教材或自学参考书。

本书在遵循国际上初步形成的“经济决策定量方法”课程架构的前提下，结合我国高校教学的实际，通过大量的实际案例，系统地介绍了“经济决策定量方法”的基本原理、方法与过程。本书可作为普通高校经济管理类专业本科生和研究生双语教学或专业英语的教材，也可以作为企业全球化管理人才培训的教材或自学参考书。