未来十年世界石油化学工业发展趋势和中国创新发展机遇

课题组名单研究报告一、未来十年世界石化产业发展的新趋势/ 6新趋势之一：新兴市场快速崛起推动全球石化消费市场持续增长/ 7新趋势之二：原料多元化进程加快推动全球能源原料结构发生重大变化/ 9新趋势之三：高端化、差异化深入发展推动产业持续向价值链高端延伸/ 13新趋势之四：安全环保约束日趋强化绿色低碳成为行业发展的新方向/ 16新趋势之五：全球经济一体化与区域贸易便利化交织发展石化产品国际贸易的不确定性进一步增加/ 18二、未来十年中国石化产业面临的挑战/ 21（一）产业层次不高大宗基础性产品过剩矛盾突出/ 22（二）创新体系不完善技术创新能力亟待提升/ 23（三）资源约束进一步加大生产要素成本攀升/ 24（四）安全环保压力持续增大行业形象亟需改进/ 25（五）市场体制机制不完善政府宏观管理存在越位、缺位、不到位现象/ 26三、未来十年中国石化产业发展面临的新机遇/ 28（一）中国人口持续增长消费水平不断提高/ 29（二）城镇化深入推进拉动中国内需市场持续优化升级/ 29（三）工业化进程加快为化工材料和产品创造了新的更大发展空间/ 30（四）农业现代化推动农业发展方式加快转变为农药、化肥等化工产业创造了新的发展空间/ 31（五）全面深化经济体制改革为石化产业发展注入了新的动力和活力/ 32（六）全球经济一体化深入推进为中国石化产业提供了更加广阔的国际发展空间/ 32四、中国石化产业未来十年发展的方向和重点/ 34（一）积极推进技术创新体系建设提高企业的技术创新能力/ 35（二）推进大宗石化产品产业优化升级进一步提高产业竞争优势/ 37（三）大力培育新兴产业努力推进石化产业的高端化、差异化和绿色发展/ 40（四）着眼于前沿技术开展研发做好石化产业可持续发展的技术储备/ 46五、政策建议/ 49（一）营造更加公平公正的市场环境/ 50（二）增加政策的透明度及稳定性/ 51（三）加强法制法规的执行力度/ 52（四）努力提升化工行业社会形象/ 52（五）加强知识产权保护/ 53（六）发挥行业协会的重要作用/ 54访谈辑要Ⅰ.巴斯夫欧洲公司执行董事会主席博凯慈博士(Kurt Bock)、陶氏化学公司董事长兼首席执行官利伟诚(Andrew Liveris)重要观点辑要/ 59Ⅱ.紧跟大趋势迎接未来十年的中国机遇——拜耳材料科技中国区兼亚太区总裁苗伯乐(Wolfgang Miebach)观点辑要/ 62Ⅲ.变革中寻求更大的竞争力——塞拉尼斯亚洲事务高级副总裁欧博礼（Mark Oberle）观点辑要/ 68Ⅳ.创新战略驱动可持续增长——赢创首席创新官聂佩德（Peter Nagler）博士，赢创高级副总裁、涂料与添加剂业务部亚太区总经理洪中博士观点辑要/ 73Ⅴ.各方协力致力于产业结构优化——日本石油化学工业化解产能过剩的对策和经验/ 84Ⅵ.专注创新与卓越运营——索尔维投资有限公司大中华区总裁朱铭岳观点辑要/ 90Ⅶ.化工贸易，可以更开放——陶氏化学公司国际政府事务总监彭宁科观点辑要/ 97Ⅷ.陶氏化学的转型之路/ 101Research Group ListResearch Report1.New Trend of the Global Petroleum & Chemical Industry in the Next 10 Years/ 6Trend No.1：The rapid rise of emerging markets will encourage the continued rapid growth of the global petroleum & chemical consumer market/ 7Trend No.2：The diversification of raw materials will accelerate，promoting global energy and raw materials structures to change significantly/ 9Trend No.3：Highend and differentiated developments will deepen，extending the industry to the highend value chain continuously/ 12Trend No.4：The increasing strictness of safety and environmental constraints will make green lowcarbon a new direction for the industry development/ 14Trend No.5：Intertwined development of global economic integration and regional trade facilitation will increase the uncertainty of petroleum & chemical products in international trade/ 162.Challenges to China’s Petroleum & Chemical Industry in the Next 10 Years/ 18（A）A relatively low industrial level and outstanding surplus as a contradiction to the bulk of basic products/ 19（B）An imperfect innovation system and the urgent need to enhance the capacity for technological innovation/ 20（C）Further aggravated resource constraints and the increasing costs of production factors/ 21（D）The continuously increasing pressures of safety and environmental responsibility，together with the urgent need to improve the industry’s image/ 22（E）An imperfect market institutional mechanism and improper macromanagement by the government/ 233.New Opportunities of China’s Petroleum & Chemical Industry in the Next 10 Years/ 24（A）China’s population will continue to grow，and the consumption level will constantly improve/ 25（B）Urbanization will be further promoted，stimulating China’s domesticdemand market to continue optimizing and upgrading/ 25（C）The process of industrialization will accelerate，providing a larger platform for the development of chemical materials and products/ 26（D）Agricultural modernization will accelerate the transformation of the agricultural development mode，creating a new development space for pesticides，fertilizers and other chemical industry products/ 27（E）Economic reform will deepen comprehensively，injecting new impetus and vigor into the petroleum & chemical industry’s development/ 28（F）Global economic integration will be further promoted，providing a broader international development space for China’s petroleum & chemical industry/ 284.The Development Direction and Priority of China’s Petroleum & Chemical Industry in the Next 10 Years/ 30（A）Actively promote the system of technological innovation and improve the technological innovation capacity of enterprises/ 31（B）Promote the optimization and upgrading of the bulk of petroleum & chemical products，and spur the industry to further enhance industrial competitiveness/ 32（C）Cultivate new industries in order to promote highend，differentiated, green development of the petroleum & chemical industry/ 35（D）Focus on cuttingedge technology to prepare for the sustainable development of the petroleum & chemical industry/ 405.Policy Recommendations/ 42（A）Create a fair and equitable market environment/ 43（B）Increase the transparency and stability of policy/ 44（C）Strengthen the enforcement of laws and regulations/ 44（D）Endeavor to improve the social image of the chemical industry/ 45（E）Strengthen the protection of intellectual property/ 46（F）Make good use of industry associations/ 46Interview SummariesⅠ.Viewpoints Summary of Kurt Bock，Chairman of Executive Directors Board of BASF SE, and Andrew Liveris，Chairman and CEO of Dow Chemical Company/ 51Ⅱ.BMS China Strategy：Follow Current Trends to Grasp Opportunities in Next Decade—Viewpoints Summary of Wolfgang Miebach，President of Bayer MaterialScience China/APAC/ 54Ⅲ.Seeking for greater competitiveness in innovation—Viewpoints Summary of Mark Oberle，Senior Vice President of Celanese/ 61Ⅳ.Sustainable Growth Through Strategic Innovation—Viewpoints Summary of Dr.Peter Nagler，Chief Innovation Officer of Evonik Industries AG，and Dr.Hong Zhong，Senior Vice President & General Manager, Coatings & Additives, Asia Pacific, Evonik Industries/ 64Ⅴ.Strategies and Experiences of Japanese Petrochemical Industry to Resolve Overcapacity/ 72Ⅵ.Focusing on Innovation and Operational Excellence—Viewpoints Summary of Michael Zhu, Great China Country General Manager of Solvay/ 77Ⅶ.Further Liberalization for Chemical Trade—Viewpoints Summary of Peng Ningke， Director, International Government Affairs of Dow Chemical/ 82Ⅷ.Dow Chemical，a Journey of Transformation/ 85

本书主要对未来十年世界石化产业发展的新趋势、未来十年中国石化产业面临的挑战、未来十年中国石化产业发展面临的新机遇、中国石化产业未来十年发展的方向和重点、政策建议做了预测和评述，同时附录了一批跨国公司大中华区总裁和高层管理人员访的访谈辑要。